Slaughter and May
This second edition of The Lending and Secured Finance Review comes on the heels of a period of volatility and the result of the United Kingdom’s referendum on EU membership – a topic that, unsurprisingly, dominated headlines and impacted deal volumes in the months leading up to the referendum.
During 2014 and 2015, the loan markets grew against a backdrop of greater economic stability and the return of M&A activity in Europe and globally, and 2015 was in fact the busiest year for the EMEA region since the credit crisis. Between January and June 2016, however, the market contracted quite significantly – a combination of factors, including the collapse in oil prices, the slowdown in China and the prospect of Brexit all contributed to chilling the global market for event-driven financings. Refinancing activity also fell in volume terms compared with previous years, many borrowers having sourced their needs for at least the next few years during the protracted period of favourable market conditions in 2014 and 2015.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote to leave the EU, corporate groups and other businesses (both domestic and overseas) face new risks and challenges that will need to be addressed, and the legal, regulatory and market outlook has been significantly altered, at least for the United Kingdom. At the time of writing, the shape of the United Kingdom’s future relationship with the EU remains unclear, and the immediate challenge for debt market participants is how best to weather the uncertain market conditions exacerbated by the prospect of Brexit.
The impact of Brexit on the availability of finance and the products on offer over the longer term is difficult to anticipate. There are no current indications that banks’ liquidity or funding positions have altered significantly, but it seems prudent to anticipate that lending criteria may tighten and banks will look closely at the impact of Brexit on their customers when approving new loans. Treasurers may focus again on alternative sources of finance. Pre-referendum, the involvement of direct lending funds, private placements and other alternatives to traditional bank finance was growing, supported by industry and government, but it remains to be seen whether this growth will continue.